APAC offshore wind developers must implement Time Series data early to avoid inaccurate wind resource assessments

• Analysis shows that reliance on European wind speed modelling approaches in Asia-Pacific’s complex conditions can lead to both over- and underestimation of annual energy production (AEP) for sites in development
• Developers in APAC need to invest earlier in high-resolution Time Series data to understand the local wind resource – and the future financial performance of their sites
• Youwind collaborates with Vortex to provide accurate early-stage wind modelling capabilities for APAC projects

Barcelona, 10th December 2024 — Offshore wind power, historically rooted in Europe, is now rapidly expanding in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, which is emerging as a global leader in new offshore wind activity. However, developers in APAC face challenges when using wind resource modelling methods designed for Europe.

Youwind Renewables, a leading provider of web-based solutions for early-stage offshore wind development, warns that reliance on traditional approaches – particularly the Weibull distribution – may lead to inaccurate wind resource assessments and suboptimal energy yield predictions in the region’s unique wind environments.

The Weibull distribution, widely used for early-stage modelling in Europe, often fails to capture the complexities of APAC wind patterns. Recent data from a wind resource modelling case study in South Korea illustrates the significant impact of using high-resolution Time Series data for accurate yield assessments.

When comparing three approaches (Weibull distribution, ERA5 ‘freemium’ time series data, and Vortex TIMES premium data), Youwind’s analysis revealed stark differences in estimated annual energy production (AEP). The ERA5 data showed a -4.15% net AEP deviation compared to Weibull distribution, while the Vortex data recorded a +2.29% net AEP.

Figure 1: Map of example project site, South Korea

Figure 2: Wind distribution modelled with Weibull distribution vs. ERA5 Time Series vs. Vortex Time Series

Figure 3: Differences in estimated Annual Energy Production (AEP)

These findings – which are common across the APAC region - highlight the limitations of relying on Weibull and free Time Series data, which lack the granularity of premium datasets like Vortex.

Less precise models either overestimate or underestimate wind speeds, leading to significant variances in AEP calculations. For developers in the APAC region, where accurate modelling is critical for long-term project success, integrating high-resolution time series data at the earliest stages of planning ensures more reliable and bankable yield projections.

Youwind’s platform – used to accelerate early-stage screening, layout and yield optimisation for offshore wind projects worldwide – benefits from a unique integration with Vortex, the leading provider of high-resolution modelled wind resource data. This enables users in APAC and other global markets to incorporate Vortex 10-minute Time Series data into early-stage project development, leading to more reliable AEP estimates, tailored to regional conditions.

“APAC’s wind conditions are fundamentally different from Europe’s, and it’s critical that developers adapt their methodologies accordingly,” said Edvald Edvaldsson, CTO and Co-Founder at Youwind Renewables. “By giving developers the means to leverage high resolution Time Series data earlier in the development lifecycle and removing outdated practices, we’re ensuring that offshore wind in the region achieves its full potential. Accurate modelling is not just a technical necessity – it’s the foundation for building a sustainable and profitable industry in APAC.”